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2024-08-27 11:43:02 -04:00

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<title>Does a US Born Players Birthdate affect their shot at the NHL – Kyle Belanger</title>
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<h1 class="title">Does a US Born Players Birthdate affect their shot at the NHL</h1>
<div>
<div class="description">
Inspired by TidyTuesday Week 2 - 2024 dataset about Candian Players, lets look at the same anaylyis for American Born Players
</div>
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<div class="quarto-categories">
<div class="quarto-category">tidytuesday</div>
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<div class="quarto-title-meta-heading">Author</div>
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<p><a href="https://kyleb.rbind.io/">Kyle Belanger</a> </p>
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<div class="quarto-title-meta-heading">Published</div>
<div class="quarto-title-meta-contents">
<p class="date">June 8, 2024</p>
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<ul>
<li><a href="#distribution-of-births-by-month-in-the-united-states" id="toc-distribution-of-births-by-month-in-the-united-states" class="nav-link active" data-scroll-target="#distribution-of-births-by-month-in-the-united-states">Distribution of Births by Month in the United States</a>
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<li><a href="#distribution-of-births-compared-to-expected" id="toc-distribution-of-births-compared-to-expected" class="nav-link" data-scroll-target="#distribution-of-births-compared-to-expected">Distribution of Births Compared to Expected</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li><a href="#hockey-data" id="toc-hockey-data" class="nav-link" data-scroll-target="#hockey-data">Hockey Data</a></li>
<li><a href="#graph-it" id="toc-graph-it" class="nav-link" data-scroll-target="#graph-it">Graph It</a></li>
<li><a href="#a-little-fun" id="toc-a-little-fun" class="nav-link" data-scroll-target="#a-little-fun">A Little Fun</a></li>
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<p>This post is inspired by this fantastic <a href="https://jlaw.netlify.app/2023/12/04/are-birth-dates-still-destiny-for-canadian-nhl-players/">blog post</a> on Jlaws Blog. In it they explore how in the first chapter Malcolm Gladwell’s Outliers he discusses how in Canadian Junior Hockey there is a higher likelihood for players to be born in the first quarter of the year. As it appears cutoff dates for USA hockey are different and they are currently using June 1st (if my internet searches are to be believed), I wondered if the same analysis would hold true for American Born Players.</p>
<section id="distribution-of-births-by-month-in-the-united-states" class="level2">
<h2 class="anchored" data-anchor-id="distribution-of-births-by-month-in-the-united-states">Distribution of Births by Month in the United States</h2>
<p>The data for US Birth Rates can be pulled from <a href="https://wonder.cdc.gov/">CDC Wonder</a>. The particular table of interest is the Natality, 2007 - 2022. CDC Wonder has a quite interesting API that requires a request with quite a few XML parameters. Thankfully you can build the request on the website and a nice package already exists to send the query. Check out the <a href="https://socdatar.github.io/wonderapi/index.html">Wonderapi Page</a> for more info.</p>
<div class="cell">
<div class="sourceCode cell-code" id="cb1"><pre class="sourceCode r code-with-copy"><code class="sourceCode r"><span id="cb1-1"><a href="#cb1-1" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>usa_raw <span class="ot">&lt;-</span> wonderapi<span class="sc">::</span><span class="fu">send_query</span>(<span class="st">"D66"</span>, here<span class="sc">::</span><span class="fu">here</span>(<span class="st">"posts"</span>, <span class="st">"2024-05-15-US-NHL-Birthrate"</span>, <span class="st">"cdc_wonder_request.xml"</span>))</span>
<span id="cb1-2"><a href="#cb1-2" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a></span>
<span id="cb1-3"><a href="#cb1-3" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>usa_births <span class="ot">&lt;-</span> usa_raw <span class="sc">%&gt;%</span></span>
<span id="cb1-4"><a href="#cb1-4" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> dplyr<span class="sc">::</span><span class="fu">group_by</span>(Month) <span class="sc">%&gt;%</span></span>
<span id="cb1-5"><a href="#cb1-5" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> dplyr<span class="sc">::</span><span class="fu">summarise</span>(<span class="at">country_births =</span> <span class="fu">sum</span>(Births), <span class="at">.groups =</span> <span class="st">"drop"</span>) <span class="sc">%&gt;%</span></span>
<span id="cb1-6"><a href="#cb1-6" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> dplyr<span class="sc">::</span><span class="fu">mutate</span>(<span class="at">country_pct =</span> country_births <span class="sc">/</span> <span class="fu">sum</span>(country_births))</span></code><button title="Copy to Clipboard" class="code-copy-button"><i class="bi"></i></button></pre></div>
</div>
<section id="distribution-of-births-compared-to-expected" class="level3">
<h3 class="anchored" data-anchor-id="distribution-of-births-compared-to-expected">Distribution of Births Compared to Expected</h3>
<p>The data from CDC Wonder pulls in quite nice, the only addition is adding a column for expected Births. This column gives each day of each month an equal chance for a person being born. Based on the data the summer months (June through August), and September have a slightly higher actual birth vs expected. Based on cut off Dates many of these kids would be the oldest in their age groups.</p>
<div class="cell">
<div class="sourceCode cell-code" id="cb2"><pre class="sourceCode r code-with-copy"><code class="sourceCode r"><span id="cb2-1"><a href="#cb2-1" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>usa_births <span class="sc">%&gt;%</span></span>
<span id="cb2-2"><a href="#cb2-2" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> dplyr<span class="sc">::</span><span class="fu">mutate</span>(<span class="at">expected_births =</span> dplyr<span class="sc">::</span><span class="fu">case_when</span>(</span>
<span id="cb2-3"><a href="#cb2-3" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> Month <span class="sc">%in%</span> <span class="fu">c</span>(<span class="st">"April"</span>, <span class="st">"June"</span>, <span class="st">"September"</span>, <span class="st">"November"</span>) <span class="sc">~</span> <span class="dv">30</span> <span class="sc">/</span> <span class="dv">365</span></span>
<span id="cb2-4"><a href="#cb2-4" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> , Month <span class="sc">==</span> <span class="st">"February"</span> <span class="sc">~</span> <span class="dv">28</span> <span class="sc">/</span> <span class="dv">365</span></span>
<span id="cb2-5"><a href="#cb2-5" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> , <span class="at">.default =</span> <span class="dv">31</span> <span class="sc">/</span> <span class="dv">365</span></span>
<span id="cb2-6"><a href="#cb2-6" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> )</span>
<span id="cb2-7"><a href="#cb2-7" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> , <span class="at">difference =</span> country_pct <span class="sc">-</span> expected_births</span>
<span id="cb2-8"><a href="#cb2-8" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> , dplyr<span class="sc">::</span><span class="fu">across</span>(Month, <span class="sc">~</span><span class="fu">factor</span>(., <span class="at">levels =</span> month.name))</span>
<span id="cb2-9"><a href="#cb2-9" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> , dplyr<span class="sc">::</span><span class="fu">across</span>(<span class="fu">c</span>(country_pct, expected_births, difference), <span class="sc">~</span>scales<span class="sc">::</span><span class="fu">percent</span>(., <span class="at">accuracy =</span> .<span class="dv">1</span>))</span>
<span id="cb2-10"><a href="#cb2-10" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> ) <span class="sc">%&gt;%</span></span>
<span id="cb2-11"><a href="#cb2-11" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> dplyr<span class="sc">::</span><span class="fu">arrange</span>(Month) <span class="sc">%&gt;%</span></span>
<span id="cb2-12"><a href="#cb2-12" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> dplyr<span class="sc">::</span><span class="fu">rename_with</span>(<span class="sc">~</span>stringr<span class="sc">::</span><span class="fu">str_replace_all</span>(., <span class="st">"_"</span>, <span class="st">" "</span>)) <span class="sc">%&gt;%</span></span>
<span id="cb2-13"><a href="#cb2-13" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> dplyr<span class="sc">::</span><span class="fu">rename_with</span>(stringr<span class="sc">::</span>str_to_title) <span class="sc">%&gt;%</span></span>
<span id="cb2-14"><a href="#cb2-14" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> kableExtra<span class="sc">::</span><span class="fu">kbl</span>() <span class="sc">%&gt;%</span></span>
<span id="cb2-15"><a href="#cb2-15" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> kableExtra<span class="sc">::</span><span class="fu">kable_styling</span>()</span></code><button title="Copy to Clipboard" class="code-copy-button"><i class="bi"></i></button></pre></div>
<div class="cell-output-display">
<table class="table caption-top table-sm table-striped small" data-quarto-postprocess="true">
<thead>
<tr class="header">
<th style="text-align: left;" data-quarto-table-cell-role="th">Month</th>
<th style="text-align: right;" data-quarto-table-cell-role="th">Country Births</th>
<th style="text-align: left;" data-quarto-table-cell-role="th">Country Pct</th>
<th style="text-align: left;" data-quarto-table-cell-role="th">Expected Births</th>
<th style="text-align: left;" data-quarto-table-cell-role="th">Difference</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td style="text-align: left;">January</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">5118343</td>
<td style="text-align: left;">8.2%</td>
<td style="text-align: left;">8.5%</td>
<td style="text-align: left;">-0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td style="text-align: left;">February</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">4758741</td>
<td style="text-align: left;">7.6%</td>
<td style="text-align: left;">7.7%</td>
<td style="text-align: left;">-0.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td style="text-align: left;">March</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">5205579</td>
<td style="text-align: left;">8.3%</td>
<td style="text-align: left;">8.5%</td>
<td style="text-align: left;">-0.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td style="text-align: left;">April</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">5001651</td>
<td style="text-align: left;">8.0%</td>
<td style="text-align: left;">8.2%</td>
<td style="text-align: left;">-0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td style="text-align: left;">May</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">5226642</td>
<td style="text-align: left;">8.3%</td>
<td style="text-align: left;">8.5%</td>
<td style="text-align: left;">-0.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td style="text-align: left;">June</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">5226141</td>
<td style="text-align: left;">8.3%</td>
<td style="text-align: left;">8.2%</td>
<td style="text-align: left;">0.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td style="text-align: left;">July</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">5528731</td>
<td style="text-align: left;">8.8%</td>
<td style="text-align: left;">8.5%</td>
<td style="text-align: left;">0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td style="text-align: left;">August</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">5635283</td>
<td style="text-align: left;">9.0%</td>
<td style="text-align: left;">8.5%</td>
<td style="text-align: left;">0.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td style="text-align: left;">September</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">5448101</td>
<td style="text-align: left;">8.7%</td>
<td style="text-align: left;">8.2%</td>
<td style="text-align: left;">0.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td style="text-align: left;">October</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">5348495</td>
<td style="text-align: left;">8.5%</td>
<td style="text-align: left;">8.5%</td>
<td style="text-align: left;">0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td style="text-align: left;">November</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">5059952</td>
<td style="text-align: left;">8.1%</td>
<td style="text-align: left;">8.2%</td>
<td style="text-align: left;">-0.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td style="text-align: left;">December</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">5227828</td>
<td style="text-align: left;">8.3%</td>
<td style="text-align: left;">8.5%</td>
<td style="text-align: left;">-0.2%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
</div>
</section>
</section>
<section id="hockey-data" class="level2">
<h2 class="anchored" data-anchor-id="hockey-data">Hockey Data</h2>
<p>While I wish I could sit and type out how I sat and figured out the complexity of the NHL Stats API and how to bring it into R. In reality I took a great guide, that being Jlaws post, and tweaked what I needed. Instead of Canadian players, I pulled out just the US Born players and their birth dates. I did also pull out positions to see if that will make any sort of difference. What pulls out of the NHL API has a ton of great details and I look forward to diving into what is available to see what kind of graphics can be built.</p>
<p><strong>08/27/2024 Update</strong> Due to the the Coyotes moving to Utah, I had to edit the code slightly to adjust for this. When gathering the active roster data the API was returning a blank response. This was causing Tidyr Hoist to fail because it could not pull the columns from the nested data frame. I added a check to see if the data frame is empty and if it is, then I return an empty data frame and skip this step.</p>
<div class="cell">
<div class="sourceCode cell-code" id="cb3"><pre class="sourceCode r code-with-copy"><code class="sourceCode r"><span id="cb3-1"><a href="#cb3-1" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>teams <span class="ot">&lt;-</span> httr<span class="sc">::</span><span class="fu">GET</span>(<span class="st">"https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/team"</span>) <span class="sc">%&gt;%</span></span>
<span id="cb3-2"><a href="#cb3-2" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> httr<span class="sc">::</span><span class="fu">content</span>() <span class="sc">%&gt;%</span></span>
<span id="cb3-3"><a href="#cb3-3" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> .[[<span class="st">"data"</span>]] <span class="sc">%&gt;%</span></span>
<span id="cb3-4"><a href="#cb3-4" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> tibble<span class="sc">::</span><span class="fu">tibble</span>(<span class="at">data =</span> .) <span class="sc">%&gt;%</span></span>
<span id="cb3-5"><a href="#cb3-5" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> tidyr<span class="sc">::</span><span class="fu">unnest_wider</span>(data)</span>
<span id="cb3-6"><a href="#cb3-6" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a></span>
<span id="cb3-7"><a href="#cb3-7" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>get_roster <span class="ot">&lt;-</span> <span class="cf">function</span>(team){</span>
<span id="cb3-8"><a href="#cb3-8" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> df <span class="ot">&lt;-</span> httr<span class="sc">::</span><span class="fu">GET</span>(glue<span class="sc">::</span><span class="fu">glue</span>(<span class="st">"https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/{team}/20232024"</span>)) <span class="sc">%&gt;%</span></span>
<span id="cb3-9"><a href="#cb3-9" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> httr<span class="sc">::</span><span class="fu">content</span>() <span class="sc">%&gt;%</span></span>
<span id="cb3-10"><a href="#cb3-10" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> purrr<span class="sc">::</span><span class="fu">flatten</span>() <span class="sc">%&gt;%</span></span>
<span id="cb3-11"><a href="#cb3-11" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> tibble<span class="sc">::</span><span class="fu">tibble</span>(<span class="at">data =</span> .)</span>
<span id="cb3-12"><a href="#cb3-12" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a></span>
<span id="cb3-13"><a href="#cb3-13" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="cf">if</span> (<span class="sc">!</span><span class="fu">nrow</span>(df) <span class="sc">==</span> <span class="dv">0</span>) {</span>
<span id="cb3-14"><a href="#cb3-14" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> df <span class="ot">&lt;-</span> df <span class="sc">|&gt;</span></span>
<span id="cb3-15"><a href="#cb3-15" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> tidyr<span class="sc">::</span><span class="fu">hoist</span>(</span>
<span id="cb3-16"><a href="#cb3-16" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="at">.col =</span> <span class="st">"data"</span></span>
<span id="cb3-17"><a href="#cb3-17" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> , <span class="st">"firstName"</span> <span class="ot">=</span> <span class="fu">list</span>(<span class="st">"firstName"</span>, <span class="dv">1</span>L)</span>
<span id="cb3-18"><a href="#cb3-18" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> , <span class="st">"lastName"</span> <span class="ot">=</span> <span class="fu">list</span>(<span class="st">"lastName"</span>, <span class="dv">1</span>L)</span>
<span id="cb3-19"><a href="#cb3-19" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> , <span class="st">"positionCode"</span></span>
<span id="cb3-20"><a href="#cb3-20" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> , <span class="st">"birthDate"</span></span>
<span id="cb3-21"><a href="#cb3-21" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> , <span class="st">"birthCountry"</span></span>
<span id="cb3-22"><a href="#cb3-22" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> )</span>
<span id="cb3-23"><a href="#cb3-23" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> }</span>
<span id="cb3-24"><a href="#cb3-24" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="fu">return</span>(df)</span>
<span id="cb3-25"><a href="#cb3-25" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>}</span>
<span id="cb3-26"><a href="#cb3-26" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a></span>
<span id="cb3-27"><a href="#cb3-27" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>usa_roster <span class="ot">&lt;-</span> purrr<span class="sc">::</span><span class="fu">map</span>(teams<span class="sc">$</span>triCode, get_roster) <span class="sc">%&gt;%</span></span>
<span id="cb3-28"><a href="#cb3-28" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> purrr<span class="sc">::</span><span class="fu">list_rbind</span>() <span class="sc">%&gt;%</span></span>
<span id="cb3-29"><a href="#cb3-29" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> dplyr<span class="sc">::</span><span class="fu">filter</span>(<span class="sc">!</span><span class="fu">is.na</span>(firstName)) <span class="sc">%&gt;%</span></span>
<span id="cb3-30"><a href="#cb3-30" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> dplyr<span class="sc">::</span><span class="fu">filter</span>(birthCountry <span class="sc">==</span> <span class="st">"USA"</span>) <span class="sc">%&gt;%</span></span>
<span id="cb3-31"><a href="#cb3-31" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> dplyr<span class="sc">::</span><span class="fu">mutate</span>(</span>
<span id="cb3-32"><a href="#cb3-32" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="at">mob =</span> lubridate<span class="sc">::</span><span class="fu">month</span>(lubridate<span class="sc">::</span><span class="fu">ymd</span>(birthDate), <span class="at">label =</span> <span class="cn">TRUE</span>, <span class="at">abbr =</span> <span class="cn">FALSE</span>)</span>
<span id="cb3-33"><a href="#cb3-33" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> , <span class="at">mob_id =</span> lubridate<span class="sc">::</span><span class="fu">month</span>(lubridate<span class="sc">::</span><span class="fu">ymd</span>(birthDate))</span>
<span id="cb3-34"><a href="#cb3-34" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> ) <span class="sc">%&gt;%</span></span>
<span id="cb3-35"><a href="#cb3-35" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> dplyr<span class="sc">::</span><span class="fu">count</span>(mob_id, mob, <span class="at">name =</span> <span class="st">"players"</span>) <span class="sc">%&gt;%</span></span>
<span id="cb3-36"><a href="#cb3-36" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> dplyr<span class="sc">::</span><span class="fu">mutate</span>(<span class="at">player_pct =</span> players <span class="sc">/</span> <span class="fu">sum</span>(players))</span></code><button title="Copy to Clipboard" class="code-copy-button"><i class="bi"></i></button></pre></div>
</div>
</section>
<section id="graph-it" class="level2">
<h2 class="anchored" data-anchor-id="graph-it">Graph It</h2>
<p>Lets now take a look at the graph. Using the ggimage package we can place nice logos for both the United States and NHL on the graph. This stands out quite nicely versus just using a colored point. Interesting enough the graph seems to show being born early on in the year may mean making the NHL is more likely.</p>
<div class="cell">
<div class="sourceCode cell-code" id="cb4"><pre class="sourceCode r code-with-copy"><code class="sourceCode r"><span id="cb4-1"><a href="#cb4-1" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>nhl_icon <span class="ot">&lt;-</span> <span class="st">"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F9sTTAYakAAkRv6.png"</span></span>
<span id="cb4-2"><a href="#cb4-2" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>usa_icon <span class="ot">&lt;-</span> <span class="st">"https://cdn-icons-png.flaticon.com/512/197/197484.png"</span></span>
<span id="cb4-3"><a href="#cb4-3" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a></span>
<span id="cb4-4"><a href="#cb4-4" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>combined <span class="ot">&lt;-</span> usa_roster <span class="sc">%&gt;%</span></span>
<span id="cb4-5"><a href="#cb4-5" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> dplyr<span class="sc">::</span><span class="fu">left_join</span>(usa_births, <span class="at">by =</span> <span class="fu">c</span>(<span class="st">"mob"</span> <span class="ot">=</span> <span class="st">"Month"</span>)) <span class="sc">%&gt;%</span></span>
<span id="cb4-6"><a href="#cb4-6" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> dplyr<span class="sc">::</span><span class="fu">mutate</span>(</span>
<span id="cb4-7"><a href="#cb4-7" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="at">random =</span> dplyr<span class="sc">::</span><span class="fu">case_when</span>(</span>
<span id="cb4-8"><a href="#cb4-8" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> mob_id <span class="sc">%in%</span> <span class="fu">c</span>(<span class="dv">4</span>, <span class="dv">6</span>, <span class="dv">9</span>, <span class="dv">11</span>) <span class="sc">~</span> <span class="dv">30</span> <span class="sc">/</span> <span class="dv">365</span>,</span>
<span id="cb4-9"><a href="#cb4-9" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> mob_id <span class="sc">%in%</span> <span class="fu">c</span>(<span class="dv">1</span>, <span class="dv">3</span>, <span class="dv">5</span>, <span class="dv">7</span>, <span class="dv">8</span>, <span class="dv">10</span>, <span class="dv">12</span>) <span class="sc">~</span> <span class="dv">31</span> <span class="sc">/</span> <span class="dv">365</span>,</span>
<span id="cb4-10"><a href="#cb4-10" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> mob_id <span class="sc">==</span> <span class="dv">2</span> <span class="sc">~</span> <span class="dv">28</span> <span class="sc">/</span> <span class="dv">365</span></span>
<span id="cb4-11"><a href="#cb4-11" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> )</span>
<span id="cb4-12"><a href="#cb4-12" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> )</span>
<span id="cb4-13"><a href="#cb4-13" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a></span>
<span id="cb4-14"><a href="#cb4-14" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="co"># labels &lt;- combined %&gt;% glue::glue_data("{mob} &lt;br&gt; n = {players}")</span></span>
<span id="cb4-15"><a href="#cb4-15" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a></span>
<span id="cb4-16"><a href="#cb4-16" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>g1 <span class="ot">&lt;-</span> combined <span class="sc">%&gt;%</span></span>
<span id="cb4-17"><a href="#cb4-17" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="fu">ggplot</span>(<span class="fu">aes</span>(<span class="at">x =</span> forcats<span class="sc">::</span><span class="fu">fct_reorder</span>(mob, <span class="sc">-</span>mob_id))) <span class="sc">+</span></span>
<span id="cb4-18"><a href="#cb4-18" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="fu">geom_line</span>(<span class="fu">aes</span>(<span class="at">y =</span> random, <span class="at">group =</span> <span class="dv">1</span>), <span class="at">linetype =</span> <span class="dv">2</span>, <span class="at">color =</span> <span class="st">"grey60"</span>) <span class="sc">+</span></span>
<span id="cb4-19"><a href="#cb4-19" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="fu">geom_linerange</span>(<span class="fu">aes</span>(<span class="at">ymin =</span> country_pct, <span class="at">ymax =</span> player_pct)) <span class="sc">+</span></span>
<span id="cb4-20"><a href="#cb4-20" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="fu">geom_image</span>(<span class="fu">aes</span>(<span class="at">image =</span> nhl_icon, <span class="at">y =</span> player_pct), <span class="at">size =</span> <span class="fl">0.1</span>) <span class="sc">+</span></span>
<span id="cb4-21"><a href="#cb4-21" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="fu">geom_image</span>(<span class="fu">aes</span>(<span class="at">image =</span> usa_icon, <span class="at">y =</span> country_pct), <span class="at">size =</span> <span class="fl">0.08</span>) <span class="sc">+</span></span>
<span id="cb4-22"><a href="#cb4-22" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="fu">geom_text</span>(<span class="fu">aes</span>(<span class="at">label =</span> scales<span class="sc">::</span><span class="fu">percent</span>(player_pct, <span class="at">accuracy =</span> .<span class="dv">1</span>),</span>
<span id="cb4-23"><a href="#cb4-23" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="at">y =</span> dplyr<span class="sc">::</span><span class="fu">if_else</span>(player_pct <span class="sc">&gt;</span> country_pct, player_pct <span class="sc">+</span> .<span class="dv">006</span>, player_pct <span class="sc">-</span> .<span class="dv">006</span>)), <span class="at">size =</span> <span class="dv">5</span>) <span class="sc">+</span></span>
<span id="cb4-24"><a href="#cb4-24" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="fu">geom_text</span>(<span class="fu">aes</span>(<span class="at">label =</span> scales<span class="sc">::</span><span class="fu">percent</span>(country_pct, <span class="at">accuracy =</span> .<span class="dv">1</span>),</span>
<span id="cb4-25"><a href="#cb4-25" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="at">y =</span> dplyr<span class="sc">::</span><span class="fu">if_else</span>(country_pct <span class="sc">&gt;</span> player_pct, country_pct <span class="sc">+</span> .<span class="dv">006</span>, country_pct <span class="sc">-</span> .<span class="dv">006</span>)), <span class="at">size =</span> <span class="dv">5</span>) <span class="sc">+</span></span>
<span id="cb4-26"><a href="#cb4-26" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="fu">scale_y_continuous</span>(<span class="at">labels =</span> scales<span class="sc">::</span>percent) <span class="sc">+</span></span>
<span id="cb4-27"><a href="#cb4-27" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="co"># scale_x_discrete(labels = labels) +</span></span>
<span id="cb4-28"><a href="#cb4-28" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="fu">coord_flip</span>() <span class="sc">+</span></span>
<span id="cb4-29"><a href="#cb4-29" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="fu">labs</span>(</span>
<span id="cb4-30"><a href="#cb4-30" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="at">x =</span> <span class="st">"Month of Birth"</span></span>
<span id="cb4-31"><a href="#cb4-31" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> , <span class="at">y =</span> <span class="st">"Percentage of Births"</span></span>
<span id="cb4-32"><a href="#cb4-32" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> , <span class="at">title =</span> <span class="st">"Are United States Born NHL Players More Likely to be Born Early in the Year?"</span></span>
<span id="cb4-33"><a href="#cb4-33" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> , <span class="at">subtitle =</span> <span class="st">"Comparing the distribution of birth months between US NHL players and US in general"</span></span>
<span id="cb4-34"><a href="#cb4-34" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> , <span class="at">caption =</span> glue<span class="sc">::</span><span class="fu">glue</span>(</span>
<span id="cb4-35"><a href="#cb4-35" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="st">"&lt;img src = {nhl_icon} width = '15' height=' 15' /&gt; - US NHL Players Birth Month Distribution &lt;br /&gt;</span></span>
<span id="cb4-36"><a href="#cb4-36" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="st"> &lt;img src = {usa_icon} width = '15' height=' 15' /&gt; - US Birth Month (2007-2022) Distribution"</span></span>
<span id="cb4-37"><a href="#cb4-37" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> )</span>
<span id="cb4-38"><a href="#cb4-38" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> ) <span class="sc">+</span></span>
<span id="cb4-39"><a href="#cb4-39" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="fu">theme_minimal</span>() <span class="sc">+</span></span>
<span id="cb4-40"><a href="#cb4-40" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="fu">theme</span>(</span>
<span id="cb4-41"><a href="#cb4-41" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="at">plot.caption =</span> <span class="fu">element_markdown</span>()</span>
<span id="cb4-42"><a href="#cb4-42" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> , <span class="at">plot.title.position =</span> <span class="st">"plot"</span></span>
<span id="cb4-43"><a href="#cb4-43" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> , <span class="at">text =</span> <span class="fu">element_text</span>(<span class="at">size =</span> <span class="dv">16</span>)</span>
<span id="cb4-44"><a href="#cb4-44" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> , <span class="at">axis.text =</span> <span class="fu">element_markdown</span>()</span>
<span id="cb4-45"><a href="#cb4-45" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> )</span>
<span id="cb4-46"><a href="#cb4-46" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a></span>
<span id="cb4-47"><a href="#cb4-47" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a></span>
<span id="cb4-48"><a href="#cb4-48" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>g1</span></code><button title="Copy to Clipboard" class="code-copy-button"><i class="bi"></i></button></pre></div>
<div class="cell-output-display">
<div>
<figure class="figure">
<p><img src="index_files/figure-html/Graph_It-1.png" class="img-fluid figure-img" width="960"></p>
</figure>
</div>
</div>
<div class="sourceCode cell-code" id="cb5"><pre class="sourceCode r code-with-copy"><code class="sourceCode r"><span id="cb5-1"><a href="#cb5-1" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="co"># Stats ----</span></span>
<span id="cb5-2"><a href="#cb5-2" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a></span>
<span id="cb5-3"><a href="#cb5-3" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>broom<span class="sc">::</span><span class="fu">tidy</span>(<span class="fu">chisq.test</span>(<span class="at">x =</span> combined<span class="sc">$</span>players, <span class="at">p =</span> combined<span class="sc">$</span>country_pct))</span></code><button title="Copy to Clipboard" class="code-copy-button"><i class="bi"></i></button></pre></div>
<div class="cell-output cell-output-stdout">
<pre><code># A tibble: 1 × 4
statistic p.value parameter method
&lt;dbl&gt; &lt;dbl&gt; &lt;dbl&gt; &lt;chr&gt;
1 7.34 0.771 11 Chi-squared test for given probabilities</code></pre>
</div>
</div>
<p>If we look at this from a more stats based perspective, running a chi square test on the amount of players in the NHL per month, based on the US expected birth rate, we do see however there is quite a high p value. This is lets us know we can not reject the Null hypothesis that these are the same thing.</p>
</section>
<section id="a-little-fun" class="level1">
<h1>A Little Fun</h1>
<p>For just a little bit of fun I pulled birth data for the entire world using the UN’s website. I then filtered this out to just countries that currently have players in the NHL. The graph shows more of the same, looks to lean heavily to the beginning of the year, and this time the stat back it up. So being born early in the year may in fact help your chances of making it to the NHL</p>
<div class="cell">
<div class="sourceCode cell-code" id="cb7"><pre class="sourceCode r code-with-copy"><code class="sourceCode r"><span id="cb7-1"><a href="#cb7-1" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>g2 <span class="ot">&lt;-</span> combined_world <span class="sc">%&gt;%</span></span>
<span id="cb7-2"><a href="#cb7-2" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="fu">ggplot</span>(<span class="fu">aes</span>(<span class="at">x =</span> forcats<span class="sc">::</span><span class="fu">fct_reorder</span>(mob, <span class="sc">-</span>mob_id))) <span class="sc">+</span></span>
<span id="cb7-3"><a href="#cb7-3" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="fu">geom_line</span>(<span class="fu">aes</span>(<span class="at">y =</span> random, <span class="at">group =</span> <span class="dv">1</span>), <span class="at">linetype =</span> <span class="dv">2</span>, <span class="at">color =</span> <span class="st">"grey60"</span>) <span class="sc">+</span></span>
<span id="cb7-4"><a href="#cb7-4" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="fu">geom_linerange</span>(<span class="fu">aes</span>(<span class="at">ymin =</span> world_pct, <span class="at">ymax =</span> player_pct)) <span class="sc">+</span></span>
<span id="cb7-5"><a href="#cb7-5" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="fu">geom_image</span>(<span class="fu">aes</span>(<span class="at">image =</span> world_icon, <span class="at">y =</span> world_pct), <span class="at">size =</span> <span class="fl">0.08</span>) <span class="sc">+</span></span>
<span id="cb7-6"><a href="#cb7-6" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="fu">geom_image</span>(<span class="fu">aes</span>(<span class="at">image =</span> nhl_icon, <span class="at">y =</span> player_pct), <span class="at">size =</span> <span class="fl">0.1</span>) <span class="sc">+</span></span>
<span id="cb7-7"><a href="#cb7-7" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="fu">geom_text</span>(<span class="fu">aes</span>(<span class="at">label =</span> scales<span class="sc">::</span><span class="fu">percent</span>(player_pct, <span class="at">accuracy =</span> .<span class="dv">1</span>),</span>
<span id="cb7-8"><a href="#cb7-8" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="at">y =</span> dplyr<span class="sc">::</span><span class="fu">if_else</span>(player_pct <span class="sc">&gt;</span> world_pct, player_pct <span class="sc">+</span> .<span class="dv">006</span>, player_pct <span class="sc">-</span> .<span class="dv">006</span>)), <span class="at">size =</span> <span class="dv">5</span>) <span class="sc">+</span></span>
<span id="cb7-9"><a href="#cb7-9" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="fu">geom_text</span>(<span class="fu">aes</span>(<span class="at">label =</span> scales<span class="sc">::</span><span class="fu">percent</span>(world_pct, <span class="at">accuracy =</span> .<span class="dv">1</span>),</span>
<span id="cb7-10"><a href="#cb7-10" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="at">y =</span> dplyr<span class="sc">::</span><span class="fu">if_else</span>(world_pct <span class="sc">&gt;</span> player_pct, world_pct <span class="sc">+</span> .<span class="dv">006</span>, world_pct <span class="sc">-</span> .<span class="dv">006</span>)), <span class="at">size =</span> <span class="dv">5</span>) <span class="sc">+</span></span>
<span id="cb7-11"><a href="#cb7-11" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="fu">scale_y_continuous</span>(<span class="at">labels =</span> scales<span class="sc">::</span>percent) <span class="sc">+</span></span>
<span id="cb7-12"><a href="#cb7-12" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="fu">coord_flip</span>() <span class="sc">+</span></span>
<span id="cb7-13"><a href="#cb7-13" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="fu">labs</span>(</span>
<span id="cb7-14"><a href="#cb7-14" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="at">x =</span> <span class="st">"Month of Birth"</span></span>
<span id="cb7-15"><a href="#cb7-15" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> , <span class="at">y =</span> <span class="st">"Percentage of Births"</span></span>
<span id="cb7-16"><a href="#cb7-16" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> , <span class="at">title =</span> <span class="st">"What Birthday is most liekly to make the NHL?"</span></span>
<span id="cb7-17"><a href="#cb7-17" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> , <span class="at">subtitle =</span> <span class="st">"Comparing the distribution of birth months between All NHL players and the World in general"</span></span>
<span id="cb7-18"><a href="#cb7-18" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> , <span class="at">caption =</span> glue<span class="sc">::</span><span class="fu">glue</span>(</span>
<span id="cb7-19"><a href="#cb7-19" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="st">"&lt;img src = {nhl_icon} width = '15' height=' 15' /&gt; - US NHL Players Birth Month Distribution &lt;br /&gt;</span></span>
<span id="cb7-20"><a href="#cb7-20" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a><span class="st"> &lt;img src = {world_icon} width = '15' height=' 15' /&gt; - World Birth Month (2007-2022) Distribution"</span></span>
<span id="cb7-21"><a href="#cb7-21" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> )</span>
<span id="cb7-22"><a href="#cb7-22" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> ) <span class="sc">+</span></span>
<span id="cb7-23"><a href="#cb7-23" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="fu">theme_minimal</span>() <span class="sc">+</span></span>
<span id="cb7-24"><a href="#cb7-24" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="fu">theme</span>(</span>
<span id="cb7-25"><a href="#cb7-25" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> <span class="at">plot.caption =</span> <span class="fu">element_markdown</span>()</span>
<span id="cb7-26"><a href="#cb7-26" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> , <span class="at">plot.title.position =</span> <span class="st">"plot"</span></span>
<span id="cb7-27"><a href="#cb7-27" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> , <span class="at">text =</span> <span class="fu">element_text</span>(<span class="at">size =</span> <span class="dv">16</span>)</span>
<span id="cb7-28"><a href="#cb7-28" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> , <span class="at">axis.text =</span> <span class="fu">element_markdown</span>()</span>
<span id="cb7-29"><a href="#cb7-29" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a> )</span>
<span id="cb7-30"><a href="#cb7-30" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a></span>
<span id="cb7-31"><a href="#cb7-31" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>g2</span></code><button title="Copy to Clipboard" class="code-copy-button"><i class="bi"></i></button></pre></div>
<div class="cell-output-display">
<div>
<figure class="figure">
<p><img src="index_files/figure-html/world_graph-1.png" class="img-fluid figure-img" width="960"></p>
</figure>
</div>
</div>
<div class="sourceCode cell-code" id="cb8"><pre class="sourceCode r code-with-copy"><code class="sourceCode r"><span id="cb8-1"><a href="#cb8-1" aria-hidden="true" tabindex="-1"></a>broom<span class="sc">::</span><span class="fu">tidy</span>(<span class="fu">chisq.test</span>(<span class="at">x =</span> combined_world<span class="sc">$</span>players, <span class="at">p =</span> combined_world<span class="sc">$</span>world_pct))</span></code><button title="Copy to Clipboard" class="code-copy-button"><i class="bi"></i></button></pre></div>
<div class="cell-output cell-output-stdout">
<pre><code># A tibble: 1 × 4
statistic p.value parameter method
&lt;dbl&gt; &lt;dbl&gt; &lt;dbl&gt; &lt;chr&gt;
1 28.8 0.00243 11 Chi-squared test for given probabilities</code></pre>
</div>
</div>
</section>
<div id="quarto-appendix" class="default"><section class="quarto-appendix-contents" id="quarto-reuse"><h2 class="anchored quarto-appendix-heading">Reuse</h2><div class="quarto-appendix-contents"><div><a rel="license" href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY 4.0</a></div></div></section><section class="quarto-appendix-contents" id="quarto-citation"><h2 class="anchored quarto-appendix-heading">Citation</h2><div><div class="quarto-appendix-secondary-label">BibTeX citation:</div><pre class="sourceCode code-with-copy quarto-appendix-bibtex"><code class="sourceCode bibtex">@online{belanger2024,
author = {Belanger, Kyle},
title = {Does a {US} {Born} {Players} {Birthdate} Affect Their Shot at
the {NHL}},
date = {2024-06-08},
langid = {en}
}
</code><button title="Copy to Clipboard" class="code-copy-button"><i class="bi"></i></button></pre><div class="quarto-appendix-secondary-label">For attribution, please cite this work as:</div><div id="ref-belanger2024" class="csl-entry quarto-appendix-citeas" role="listitem">
Belanger, Kyle. 2024. <span>“Does a US Born Players Birthdate Affect
Their Shot at the NHL.”</span> June 8, 2024.
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